SpaceX’s Wall Street debut is just hours away, and investors are betting that Elon Musk‘s aerospace empire could be worth more than $2 trillion once it starts trading publicly. According to shadow and prediction markets, there is strong excitement surrounding the aerospace giant ahead of one of the most closely watched stock market listings in recent years. On Friday morning in Singapore, derivatives offered by online brokerage IG International suggested a SpaceX valuation of roughly $2.4 trillion. The pricing implied a gain of more than 35% from the company’s initial public offering valuation of $1.77 trillion, based on an IPO price of $135 a share, Bloomberg reported.The bullish sentiment was reflected on crypto trading platform Hyperliquid, where SpaceX-linked perpetual futures were soaring around $180. The non-expiring contracts implied a market capitalisation exceeding $2.3 trillion.Also read | Could Elon Musk become world’s first trillionaire? Decoding the mathPrediction markets were also riding the SpaceX optimism wave. Traders on Polymarket assigned a 70% probability that SpaceX would end its first day of trading with a valuation above the $2 trillion mark.However, despite the upbeat signals, shadow market pricing does not necessarily translate into actual stock market performance. These markets are typically less transparent and have lower liquidity than public exchanges, making them more susceptible to sharp swings. Prices may be influenced by a limited pool of traders, the use of leverage or short-term speculative activity rather than broader investor participation.
Nevertheless, the current pricing trends highlight the growing appetite for companies that merge AI and space empires. A strong SpaceX market debut could also strengthen confidence around future listings by OpenAI and Anthropic PBC, offering support for the idea that public markets are prepared to accommodate trillion-dollar valuations that would have seemed implausible only a few years ago.“Demand has been good for the IPO and there is a lot of interest in the pre-IPO trading as well,” said Fabien Yip, a market analyst at IG, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying.Also read | Should Indian investors buy the stock that is set to make Elon Musk a trillionaire?It was the most popular pre-IPO trade “we have had so far even with the valuation looking stretched. If the pre-IPO pricing momentum sustains, it will set a precedent for the next mega-IPOs,” she added.In the near term, a strong showing from SpaceX could reshape investor flows, potentially drawing capital away from the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks and even Tesla Inc. At the same time, it could provide a lift to suppliers, peers and shareholders associated with Musk’s rocket and satellite company across global markets.
