Australia’s weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations stood at 5.9 per cent for July 20-26, down 0.1 percentage points from June.
Petrol price swings and renewed Middle East fighting remain key cost signals for retailers and sourcing teams.
Official CPI stayed above the Reserve Bank’s target, keeping interest-rate risk in focus ahead of its mid-August meeting.
The measure had spiked to a record monthly high of 7 per cent in April after the United States and Israel attacked Iran, then fell significantly, before renewed fighting pushed expectations higher for three straight weeks from early July.
Average retail petrol prices fell to a four-and-a-half-year low of $1.597 per litre in late June, the lowest average retail price since early January 2022, when it was $1.59 per litre. That was down 93.7 cents, or 37 per cent, from the record high of $2.534 reached in late March 2026. Average retail petrol prices were below $1.70 per litre for five straight weeks from early June to mid-July.
At the end of June, the Albanese government halved the fuel excise cut introduced in early April and extended the other half of the cut until early August, when it is also due to end. Since the excise cut was rolled back, average retail petrol prices increased from $1.60 per litre during June 22-28, 2026, to $1.82 per litre during July 20-26, 2026, a rise of 22 cents per litre, or 14.2 per cent, Roy Morgan said in its latest weekly report.
The report cited the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) latest quarterly consumer price index (CPI), which showed annual inflation at 4 per cent in the year to May 2026. Although the rate eased by 0.6 percentage points from March 2026, it remained above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) preferred 2–3 per cent target range over the economic cycle. Inflation has more than doubled since June 2025, when it stood at 1.9 per cent.
The rise in official inflation estimates led the RBA to begin a cycle of increases by raising interest rates at its first three meetings of 2026: February by 0.25 percentage points, March by 0.25 percentage points, and May by 0.25 percentage points to 4.35 per cent. It left interest rates unchanged at its most recent meeting in mid-June.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan said that the moderation in inflation pressures from mid-April to late June meant the RBA raised interest rates only once during that period, but the recent petrol price spike and three consecutive weekly increases in inflation expectations were putting the prospect of additional RBA rate increases back in focus.
State-level monthly inflation expectations for June showed decreases in four states after the measure eased from peaks during March, April and May. Tasmania was unchanged at 6.8 per cent, while South Australia increased by 0.5 percentage points to 6.7 per cent. The largest monthly declines were in Queensland, down 0.7 percentage points to 6.3 per cent, and Western Australia, down 0.7 percentage points to 5.9 per cent.
Inflation expectations were also at 5.9 per cent in New South Wales, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month and down 1 percentage point from two months earlier. Victoria recorded the lowest reading at 5.6 per cent, down 0.5 percentage points from a month earlier and 1.2 percentage points from two months earlier. Inflation expectations in country areas declined by 0.8 percentage points to 6.2 per cent in June, while capital cities dropped by 0.2 percentage points to 5.8 per cent.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk
