IMF projects Cambodia’s real GDP growth to slow to 3 per cent in 2026 after easing to 5.3 per cent in 2025.
Inflation is projected to average 5.6 per cent in 2026, driven by higher energy prices.
Exporters, importers and sourcing teams face watchpoints around external demand, imports, energy costs and financial stability.
The expected 2026 slowdown to higher energy prices, softer external demand and reputational damage linked to scam activities, which it said would weigh on economic activity, weaken tourism and create risks for financial stability, the IMF said in a press release.
Inflation, which averaged 2.5 per cent in 2025, rose sharply in May 2026 and is projected to average 5.6 per cent in 2026 before moderating in 2027.
The external position also weakened in 2025, with the current account moving from a small surplus to a deficit as imports outpaced still-strong exports and remittances declined after the return of migrant workers.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) remained strong, while international reserves were described as adequate at about eight months of imports.
An IMF team led by Kenichiro Kashiwase held discussions with Cambodian authorities, private sector representatives and development partners in Phnom Penh from June 24 to July 8 for the 2026 Article IV consultation.
The team said risks to growth are tilted to the downside, while inflation risks are to the upside, citing energy price volatility, El Nino-related economic impacts, trade policy uncertainty and weaker tourism demand.
It said fiscal support should be temporary and targeted to vulnerable households and affected firms, while broad fuel-related support should be unwound as conditions permit.
It also called for agile monetary policy, continued efforts to safeguard financial stability and structural reforms to improve the business climate, skills, export diversification, energy security and climate resilience as Cambodia prepares for graduation from Least Developed Country status.
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