The Conference Board said China’s LEI fell by 0.8 per cent in April 2026 to 143.6, following a 0.3 per cent decline in March. Over the six-month period from October 2025 to April 2026, the index contracted by 1.5 per cent after decreasing 1.9 per cent during the previous six-month period.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which measures current economic activity, also declined by 0.8 per cent in April to 156.9, nearly offsetting the 0.9 per cent rise recorded in March. However, the CEI grew only 0.2 per cent over the six months from October 2025 to April 2026, sharply lower than the 2.9 per cent growth seen during the April-October 2025 period, TCB said in a press release.
China’s Leading Economic Index fell 0.8 per cent in April 2026, marking its sixth decline in seven months, as weak consumer demand weighed on growth.
The Coincident Economic Index also declined 0.8 per cent.
The Conference Board said slowing retail sales, weak lending activity and the Middle East conflict could further pressure the economy, forecasting China’s GDP growth at 4.5 per cent in 2026.
Timothy Brennan, economic research associate at The Conference Board, said weakness remained broad-based across the Chinese economy.
“The China LEI declined in 6 out of the last 7 months and continued its downward trend in April,” Brennan said.
“The weakness was broad-based with 7 out of 8 components contributing negatively to the index. Consumer expectations continued to be the primary drag. This has been the case for the past four years,” he added.
Brennan noted that medium-and long-term bank lending and the logistics prosperity index also weighed significantly on the LEI. Although imports of machinery and transportation equipment improved in April, gains were insufficient to offset broader weakness across other components.
The Conference Board said continued weakness among the LEI’s components over the past six months was signalling slower growth ahead.
“Widespread weakness among the LEI’s components over the previous 6-month period continued to trigger the warning signal to growth,” noted Brennan.
“The demand-side of the economy continued to undermine overall growth. According to published data, retail sales grew by just 0.2 per cent year on year (YoY) in April, the slowest pace recorded since December 2022,” he added.
The subdued domestic demand, combined with a difficult external environment worsened by the Middle East conflict, is expected to create further headwinds for China’s economy, added the release.
Reflecting these pressures, The Conference Board forecast China’s annual real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to slow to 4.5 per cent in 2026 from 5 per cent in 2025.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
