The US National Weather Service confirmed a persistent heat dome across the eastern US through early July, bringing record temperatures to the Mississippi Delta and Southeast cotton belt and increasing crop stress during a critical growth stage. USDA’s Crop Progress report for the week ended July * rated only ** per cent of the US crop as good or excellent, down two percentage points from the previous week, while just ** per cent of the crop had reached the boll-setting stage.
Indian Meteorological Department recorded June rainfall of **.* mm against a long-term normal of ***.* mm, a **.* per cent shortfall and the fifth-driest June since ****. The return of El Niño, formally declared by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on June **, has weakened monsoon rainfall, while India’s Ministry of Agriculture reported cotton sowing fell **.* per cent year-on-year to *.** lakh hectares.
The most significant development, however, came from the global balance sheet. USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), in its June Cotton and Wool Outlook, forecast ****–** world ending stocks, i.e., the unused supply carried into the following season, at **.* million bales. That is the lowest level since ****–**, while the global stocks-to-use ratio, a key indicator of supply availability, has fallen to its lowest level since ****–**.
