Goldman Sachs and EY on Friday said that the easing of West Asia crisis and lower energy prices will be positive for the Indian economy, supporting growth, easing inflationary pressure and helping rein in fertiliser subsidy, which was seen to be double the budgeted level. “…with the recent downward revision in the oil price forecast… we raise our real GDP growth forecast for CY2026 by 0.3 percentage point to 6.8% Y-o-Y, lower our headline inflation forecast by 0.2pp to 4.4% Y-o-Y and lower our current account deficit forecast by 0.2pp to 1.1% of GDP,” Goldman Sachs economics research team said in a note. EY pegged GDP growth in 2026-27 at 6.6-6.8%. “Considering the recent geopolitical developments, if global crude prices settle at relatively lower levels and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz normalise, the positive momentum of India’s growth prospects is likely to be restored,” it said. Several agencies, including RBI, had lowered the growth projection due to the war in West Asia, which hurt supplies, put pressure on prices and the Centre’s fiscal health and was expected to hurt consumption. EY estimated that the Centre’s fiscal deficit will be around 4.4% of GDP, against the budgeted level of 4.3%, while inflation will be around 4.5%. Goldman Sachs said that consumption will take some hit in the June and Sept quarters due to oil price hikes implemented earlier. “Lower crude oil prices have also been accompanied by a decline in petrochemical product prices. Although the earlier increases in polymer prices are still likely to lift core goods inflation in the near term, we now expect the impact to be limited (vs. our earlier expectations), with a lower likelihood of incremental price increases across the core goods basket,” it said.
