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Hormuz reopening may ease global trade costs: UNCTAD

Hormuz reopening may ease global trade costs: UNCTAD



Hormuz reopening may ease global trade costs: UNCTAD

The possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after more than 100 days of disruption may ease pressure on global trade and energy markets, but cost shocks for vulnerable economies are expected to last beyond the resumption of ship movements.For exporters, importers and manufacturers, the key risk is that transport and food systems may adjust more slowly than oil markets. Freight contracts can take time to reset, supply chains need time to adapt, and higher fuel, gas and fertiliser costs can continue to flow into farm production, transport bills and household budgets even after the first market shock fades, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in the fourth edition of its monitoring series.

According to UNCTAD, 61 vulnerable economies face dual exposure to oil and cereal import shocks. The group includes 35 least developed countries and 26 small island developing states, with seven countries falling into both categories.

The Strait of Hormuz could reopen after more than 100 days of disruption, easing pressure on global trade and energy markets.
UNCTAD warns freight, food, and public finance effects will unwind more slowly than oil prices.
Import-dependent economies face lasting cost pressure, with 61 vulnerable economies exposed to oil and cereal import shocks.

The pressure is most acute for economies heavily dependent on imported fuel. In Cabo Verde, net imports of oil and petroleum products averaged 24.6 per cent of gross domestic product in recent years, while in Yemen net imports of cereals and cereal products averaged 10.8 per cent of gross domestic product. 

UNCTAD said reopening the route is necessary but will not by itself reverse the impact of higher import bills, delayed shipments and more expensive food and energy. It said vulnerable economies need support to manage import costs, protect households from food and fuel price shocks, and invest in systems that reduce exposure before future disruptions reach household budgets.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk



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