US households’ one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.7 per cent in June, while three-year expectations climbed to 3.3 per cent.
Gas price growth expectations fell to 1.5 per cent, the lowest reading since August 2022.
For apparel and retail sourcing teams, mixed price and labour signals may affect demand planning, wage assumptions and consumer spending outlooks.
Three-year-ahead expectations also rose by 0.2 percentage point to 3.3 per cent, the highest since June 2022, while five-year expectations were unchanged at 3 per cent.
The survey findings also showed median year-ahead gas price growth expectations fell by 3.5 percentage points to 1.5 per cent, the lowest level since August 2022.
Labour market expectations improved in the same survey. Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.8 per cent, the highest reading since March 2025.
The mean probability that the US unemployment rate will be higher in one year declined by 1.5 percentage points to 41.7 per cent, and the perceived probability of finding a job after losing one rose by 1.2 percentage points to 44.9 per cent.
For retailers and apparel supply chains, the unchanged median spending growth expectation of 5.0 per cent points to steady planned household outlays, while higher inflation expectations and slightly weaker expectations for future credit availability remain watch points for pricing, inventory and demand planning.
The survey from the bank was fielded from June 1 through June 30, 2026.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk
