Year-on-year, US buying from India is still down **.* per cent. The Q* **** peak of $*.** billion was not built on demand brands rushed shipments through ahead of the April *, ****, reciprocal tariff order. The dataset captures the full shock arc front-loading, collapse and partial reset in one time series.
Q* and Q* **** held elevated as pulled-forward inventory kept clearing US ports. Q* **** then collapsed to $*.** billion a **.* per cent drop after Washington layered a ** per cent penal duty over India’s Russian oil purchases in late August. The aggregate rate briefly reached ** per cent. Tirupur, Bengaluru and Delhi NCR were priced out overnight.
Q* **** delivered the first quarter of relief. A February * US–India interim deal cut reciprocal duties to ** per cent. On February **, the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA authority. A ** per cent Section *** supplemental tariff took over on February **. India, Bangladesh and Vietnam now pay the same ** per cent rate, closing the country-cost gap.
Upstream weakness is the real signal
