The Conference Board has projected real GDP growth of only 1 per cent in the euro area in 2026, down from 2025.
Its leading economic index for the area fell by 0.3 per cent in June, after falling by 0.3 per cent in May.
Due to recent monthly drops, the LEI fell by 1.1 per cent over H1 2026.
Its coincident economic index for the area rose by 0.1 per cent in June after being unchanged in April and May.
The LEI provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term.
Due to recent monthly declines, the LEI contracted by 1.1 per cent over the first half (H1) this year. This is a slightly faster rate than the 0.9-per cent drop seen over H2 2025.
The Conference Board coincident economic index (CEI) for the euro area ticked up by 0.1 per cent in June 2026 to 110.4 after remaining unchanged in April and May, the US think tank said in a release.
The CEI provides an indication of the current state of the economy.
The CEI increased by 0.1 per cent over H1 2026, a slower pace than the 0.5-per cent increase experienced over H2 2025.
“The Euro Area LEI fell for the fourth consecutive month in June,” said Timothy Brennan, economic research associate at the think tank.
“As in previous months, the consumer expectations component was the main drag on the Index. Lower expectations from businesses in the service sector and industrial producers also contributed to the monthly drop. However, positive contributions from financial components helped mitigate the decline,” he noted.
“Expectations among consumers, industrial producers, and services businesses remain well below their historical averages. Renewed tensions between the US and Iran are likely to place further strain on these components in the coming months by intensifying inflationary pressures and global uncertainty. These headwinds are expected to subdue euro area growth in H2 of 2026,” Brennan added.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)
