USDA raises global cotton output forecast, consumption higher in July

The global cotton outlook for the 2026–27 season improved slightly in the USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report of July 2026. Higher production in major producing countries more than offset lower beginning stocks, leading to a modest increase in global ending stocks despite stronger consumption. The revised outlook marks a shift from the tighter supply-demand balance projected in the June report.According to the July 2026 WASDE, global cotton production is forecast at 117.26 million bales (480 pounds or 220 kg each), up from 116.04 million bales projected in June. Global consumption has also been revised up slightly to 121.95 million bales, compared with 121.76 million bales last month. World cotton trade remains virtually unchanged at 43.34 million bales, while total global supply is estimated at 192.98 million bales, up from 192.67 million bales in the previous outlook. Ending stocks for 2026–27 is now projected at 71.22 million bales, marginally higher than 71.13 million bales forecast in June.

The USDA’s July WASDE raised its 2026–27 global cotton production forecast to 117.26 million bales, with higher output in Brazil, the US and Türkiye lifting ending stocks slightly despite stronger consumption.
US cotton production was also revised higher to 13.70 million bales, increasing projected ending stocks, while the 2025–26 farm price was lowered to 62.5 cents per pound.

The USDA attributed the production increase to larger crops expected in Brazil, the United States, Türkiye, and Central Asia. Consumption was revised slightly higher due to increased mill use in Vietnam, partly offset by a small reduction in Azerbaijan. As production growth outpaced the increase in consumption, global ending stocks rose marginally, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 58.4 per cent.

For 2025–26, global cotton production was lowered by 750,000 bales, mainly due to a smaller crop in Brazil. World consumption was trimmed modestly to 119.95 million bales, as lower demand in Pakistan more than offset higher consumption in Vietnam. Global exports were raised by around 1 per cent, primarily on stronger shipments from Brazil, while ending stocks were reduced by about 900,000 bales, lowering the global stocks-to-use ratio to 63.1 per cent.

The US cotton balance sheet for 2026–27 shows higher production following an upward revision in planted area based on the June Acreage Report. US cotton production is now projected at 13.70 million bales, up from 13.30 million bales in June. Beginning stocks remain unchanged at 4.20 million bales, while exports are maintained at 12.30 million bales and domestic mill use at 1.60 million bales. Higher production is expected to lift ending stocks to 4.10 million bales, compared with 3.70 million bales in the previous forecast, resulting in an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 29.5 per cent. The projected season-average farm price remains unchanged at 73 cents per pound.

For 2025–26, there were no changes to the US cotton supply and demand balance sheet. However, the season-average farm price was lowered by 0.5 cent to 62.5 cents per pound.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)