The first-half trap
Vietnam has entered **** with the credibility of a sourcing winner. Buyers still view the country as one of Asia’s most reliable alternatives to China, with scale, technical capability and improving speed-to-market. But the industry’s latest data show a widening gap between exports already shipped and orders still to be locked in.
To meet the annual target, Vietnam needs an average monthly export run-rate of about $*.**–*.** billion from June to December, above the nearly $* billion recorded in May. That is a high bar when industry reports suggest many factories have cover through Q*, but visibility from September onwards is becoming thinner.
The tariff issue has not disappeared simply because the US Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA-based global tariff route. Importers are still planning around replacement duties, appeal risk and the July ** expiry point for the temporary ** per cent global tariff. For apparel buyers, landed-cost uncertainty is enough to delay commitments, split orders or push suppliers for flexibility.
