Philippines’ DBCC has approved updated 2026-2030 macro assumptions, with growth projected at 3.5 to 4.5 per cent in 2026 before recovering later.
Goods export growth is seen at 3.0 per cent in 2026, while imports are projected to grow 5.0 per cent in 2026-2027.
For sourcing teams, inflation, oil and peso assumptions point to cost and demand risks.
For trade flows, the DBCC said goods export growth is projected to rise by 3 per cent in 2026, reach 4 per cent from 2027 to 2029 and accelerate to 5 per cent in 2030. Goods imports are expected to grow by 5 per cent in 2026-2027 and then normalise at around 4-5 per cent in 2028-2030.
The Development Budget Coordination Committee said the updated assumptions reflect heightened external uncertainties while preserving macroeconomic fundamentals.
It cited governance-related issues, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, global developments affecting business and consumer confidence, elevated inflation, potentially slower remittance and visitor-arrival growth, and a possible El Niño phenomenon as downside factors. It also said electronics exports and manufacturing may remain firm on stable global demand.
Cost assumptions remain important for importers and manufacturers. The DBCC assumed Dubai crude oil prices at $80 to $100 per barrel in 2026, $70 to $90 in 2027 and $60 to $80 from 2028 to 2030. It revised the foreign exchange assumption to an average of 60 to 62 Philippine pesos against the US dollar from 2026 to 2030.
On fiscal policy, the DBCC said it aims to lower the fiscal deficit from 5.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 to 3.5 per cent by 2030, while sustaining government investments in human capital development.
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