Global sulphur prices have surged since pre-war level, with Middle East FOB rising from $*** per MT to $*** per MT (+**.* per cent), and CFR China ($*** to *,***, + ***.* per cent), India ($*** to *,***, + ***.* per cent), Brazil ($*** to *,***, + ***.* per cent), and SEA ($*** to *,***, + ***.* per cent) all posting similarly steep gains. The sharpest acceleration came between mid-April ($***–*** range) and June **, when Middle East peaked at $*** per MT range, driven by tightening refinery output and the re-escalation of US–Iran tensions, which added a risk premium on cargoes. This freight risk, layered on constrained origin supply, explains why import markets like Brazil and China rose faster than the Middle East origin itself.
Despite this, prices remain roughly double the February baseline, as core drivers tight Middle East supply and unresolved Hormuz risk persist, keeping sellers’ firm on pricing.
Key drivers
- Tight Middle East supply. Regional refinery run rates remain subdued, constraining recovered sulphur output at a time when global fertiliser and industrial demand has not eased. This has kept the floor under FOB Middle East pricing even as buyers push back on further increases.
- US–Iran tension and the Strait of Hormuz risk premium. The re-escalation of the US–Iran standoff has placed a direct risk premium on cargoes transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for a significant share of Middle East sulphur exports. This has pushed freight costs higher and introduced schedule uncertainty, both of which are reflected in the elevated CFR values into China, India, Brazil, and Southeast Asia relative to the FOB Middle East base.
- Constrained export volumes. With Middle East refineries running below typical utilisation and geopolitical risk discouraging full cargo commitments, exportable sulphur volumes have not kept pace with global downstream requirements, reinforcing the sellers**; market that has persisted since Q* ****.
- India**;s import pipeline. According to the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilisers, Department of Fertilisers, three vessels carrying a combined *.** lakh metric tonnes (LMT) of sulphur are currently in transit to India. This confirms that Indian buyers are actively securing volumes even at elevated price levels, underscoring the urgency downstream fertiliser producers are placing on inventory security over price optimisation.
