US’ LEI fell 0.2 per cent in June 2026 to 99.1, partly reversing May’s 0.1 per cent rise, but its first-half decline slowed to 0.3 per cent.
For apparel exporters and sourcing teams, weak consumer expectations point to caution in US demand planning.
The Conference Board raised its 2026 US GDP growth forecast to 1.9 per cent from 1.8 per cent, citing AI-led business investment.
Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, business cycle indicators, The Conference Board said: “In June, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined and partially reversed gains registered in May and April.”
TCB said the largest positive contribution came from the yield spread, with marginal support from other financial components, but these were not enough to offset weak consumer expectations and a drop in building permits across most categories.
The organisation said consumer spending is weakening, while business investment related to AI is expected to support economic activity as inflation continues to improve. It raised its forecast for US GDP growth in 2026 to 1.9 per cent year-on-year (YoY) from 1.8 per cent.
Meanwhile, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the US increased by 0.2 per cent in June 2026 to 114.6, after a similar 0.2 per cent rise in May.
The CEI expanded by 0.4 per cent over the first half of 2026, slightly above the 0.3 per cent growth recorded over the previous six months. All four CEI components; payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production, made positive contributions in June.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the US was unchanged at 120.5 last month, after a 0.1 per cent decline in May. Its six-month change was positive at 1.1 per cent growth over the first half of 2026, reversing a 0.1 per cent decline over the second half of 2025.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk
