Five structural forces are reshaping logistics: uneven growth, tighter finance, geo-economic realignment, labour and productivity constraints, and energy volatility.
For textile shippers, resilience, pricing discipline and digital productivity now outweigh scale or demand recovery.
Air freight rose 3.4 per cent in 2025, while ocean oversupply opens a flexible procurement window.
Regional momentum is uneven, with the United States, India and Southeast Asia outperforming Europe and Gulf Co-operation Council economies. For exporters and importers, the report identifies the Strait of Hormuz as a critical chokepoint for global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, while noting that shifting tariff policies have created a paralysis effect, delaying supply chain and network reconfiguration.
Kearney said the US parcel and last-mile sector has undergone a structural reset rather than post-pandemic normalisation. The removal of de minimis treatment for China-origin parcels collapsed daily volumes by about 85 per cent, while carrier costs have reset with 5.9 per cent general rate increases plus fuel and accessorial surcharges, the firm said.
Demand remains supported by $1.23 trillion in US e-commerce, but has split into ultra-low-cost regional delivery and premium-speed categories, Kearney said. Platform-controlled routing is shifting advantage from network ownership towards intelligence, integration and adaptability.
Artificial intelligence has moved from evaluation to measurable commercial returns in specific logistics applications, the report said. It creates value through four capabilities: interpret, predict, recommend and execute, with interpret and predict the most mature. Adoption remains uneven, widening the gap between embedded AI workflows and isolated point solutions.
The third-party logistics (3PL) industry is at a strategic inflection point as shipper demands move from transactional execution to end-to-end supply chain orchestration. Regulatory complexity, tariff volatility and evolving cross-border flows are driving shippers to seek partners that co-ordinate modes, data and decisions across the network, the report said.
Air freight delivered record cargo volumes in 2025, with global demand growing 3.4 per cent, Kearney noted. Corridor-level divergence defined the market: tariff-driven front-loading produced early-year demand surges, Asia-Europe surged 10.3 per cent and Asia-North America contracted 0.8 per cent. Early 2026 showed strong demand acceleration, but rising fuel costs, sustainable aviation fuel requirements, constrained Gulf routing and geopolitical uncertainty are creating volatility.
Ocean freight remains oversupplied, although disruptions are reducing effective capacity. Fleet growth outpaced demand in 2025 and new-build capacity entering in 2026 is deepening the imbalance, Kearney observed. Chokepoints including the Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz, Panama Canal and Black Sea have sustained short-term rate support while limiting alternatives. For shippers, the soft market creates a procurement window, but volatility makes contract flexibility and scenario-based procurement more valuable than market timing.
The warehouse sector has largely absorbed prior-cycle disruptions and entered a period of recalibration, the report mentioned. Labour has stabilised at about 1.8 million to 1.9 million workers, but shortages are concentrated in higher-skilled technical and supervisory roles. Real estate is normalising, with vacancy at 7.1 per cent and new supply at its lowest since 2017, while inventory has shifted from broad stockpiling to targeted buffers. In US truckload, about 89,000 carriers have exited since 2022, tightening capacity and firming pricing even as demand remains mixed.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk
